“If you were an evil genius, what would you do to create maximum disruption in the world right now?” This was the first audience question posed of the panel of cyber and national security experts at Resilient Australia.
It is an uncomfortable hypothetical to consider, and the answers highlighted significant gaps in systems that we take for granted. Disrupting power grids, shutting off water, undermining elections, or getting in the way of the ability to conduct business would all grind Australia to a halt.
It was a timely discussion in a world of “permanent disruption” – as it was described by host ABC journalist Hamish Macdonald, covering the intersection of geopolitics and tech. The discussion covered practical approaches to cybersecurity and critical infrastructure resilience, and the idea of being in a near-permanent state of digital warfare, where national borders and Australia’s “tyranny of distance” no longer matter.
Geopolitics and tech are now permanently intersected
The idea of dramatic and accelerated change has been around a long time, especially in the technology sector. But the scale and implications of the technology and geopolitical changes are new.
Previously the rate of change in tech and geopolitics ran in parallel. What we have seen more recently is that technology has become a “lightning rod for what’s happening geopolitically,” according to Rob Le Busque, Regional Vice-President, Asia Pacific for Verizon Business Group.
The key technology areas that are anchoring this intersection are silicon chip production (and its control), artificial intelligence platforms, and the global submarine communications cable networks.
Mr Le Busque warned that while each of these broad pillars have strengths and weaknesses in terms of resilience to external threats and crises, the submarine cable is the most vulnerable.
With 98 per cent of the world’s international internet traffic running on submarine cables, two of the three potential choke points in the global network are located in the Asia Pacific region. One is in the relatively benign Malacca Straits, and the other is in the highly contested Taiwan Strait.
“While any large-scale interruption at any of these choke points would not stop the global internet, the service would be degraded – potentially significantly. Our current challenge is that we can’t model the outcome. So, we understand the risk, but we don’t understand the impact,” Mr le Busque said.
Cyber and critical infrastructure resilience
Former Estonian Ambassador Kersti Eesmaa – a recognised leader in cybersecurity – warned that Australia cannot allow its geographic isolation to lull it into complacency.
“This risk will only get worse. Australia is far away physically, but digitally you are not far away. There may not be politically motivated attacks, but you have to be ready.”
Ms Eesmaa’s perspective that, as nation that is in a permanent state of cyber warfare, the reason Estonia is good at cyber is “not that we are particularly smart, it’s a necessity. We have a lot of attacks and most of them are politically motivated.”
These sentiments were echoed by David Andrews, Senior Manager, Policy & Engagement, ANU National Security College.
“We are facing an unparalleled moment of concern for Australia’s strategic environment. We have felt a long way away for much of our history, but we are closer now in terms of the cyber environment. The reach of those who wish to do us harm is great.”
Mr Le Busque cautioned that Australia doesn’t take cyber risk and threats as seriously as we should, as compared with the rest of the world.
“Resilience is the godchild of preparedness. We have to get over the mindset that still exists, that because we are isolated, we are protected from cyber threats. We are not.”
He said that Australia is susceptible to DDOS attacks that are often timed to make critical infrastructure fall over at key points, like an election or budget announcements to “create embarrassment, uncertainty and disruption.”
Australia’s alliances and AUKUS Pillar 2
The panel were in agreement that it was not in Australia’s interests to cool from the United States as our key Alliance partner, given the enormous benefits we do receive. However, they cautioned that we need to think about any vulnerabilities and “hedge our bets” in terms of reliance on partnerships.
Dr Lesley Seebeck, Co-founder and Co-CEO at Geomastery Advisory and former Chair of the National Institute of Strategic Resilience proposed a rethink around building sovereign capability, particularly in relation to key AUKUS Pillar 2 key technologies.
“In a world of instability, we need to have depth. Our knowledge complexity and economic complexity is low and going backwards. And that’s what we need to survive,” Dr Seebeck said.
Regarding Pillar 2, “[Australia] had the most to gain from it, but we had to do the heaviest lifting. We should be using this moment [of geopolitical uncertainty] to change the way we do things and start to seed core capability for later.”
Mr Le Busque agreed, saying “Think about where we are as a nation – we are in a classic wedge. We walk a narrow path to prosperity and security between our biggest security partner and our biggest customer. Pillar 2 is the way to build a platform for technology knowledge and investment.”
Finally, Mr Le Busque proposed that Australia should consider what we want to be known for during this intersection of tech and geopolitics.
“How do we define what we are good at? How do we distinguish ourselves from R&D and capability in the APAC region? It comes down to trust,” he said.
“Imagine a world where Australia positions itself as a global leader in technology trust, in every regard – cyber tech, policy settings and device security.
“No-one is doing it today; no-one is doing it well or in an unbiased manner. There’s an opportunity to sit in the middle as a trusted advisor and partner.”
InnovationAus.com hosted the Resilient Australia forum in partnership with Verizon.
Do you know more? Contact James Riley via Email.